Analogs: Using Past Weather to Forecast the Future


Every growing season comes with the same question. What is the weather going to be like this year? Although the weather at a specific location can only be forecasted accurately for a few days into the future, the interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans do give strong hints as to what the general weather should be over the next few months. Almost everyone has heard of El Niño and La Niña and how each of those conditions impact the weather, but there are numerous other factors that alter weather patterns across the globe. Daryl Ritchison in his presentation will take a look at several atmospheric and oceanic oscillations and how they influence weather patterns both currently and in the past. By looking at how similar current patterns impacted growing conditions in the past, a concept referred to as analog forecasting, Daryl will show what the general weather patterns that may be during the 2025 growing season.  

Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN), State Climatologist for North Dakota  

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